Ефекти напівпрезиденталізму в умовах політичного транзиту, криз та війн: порівняльний аналіз
Ключові слова:
напівпрезиденталізм, політичний транзит, гібридні режими, війни, кризи, демократія, автократизація, дуалізм виконавчої влади, міжінституційні відносини, політична стабільністьАнотація
У статті зроблено порівняльний аналіз ефектів напівпрезиденталізму в умовах політичного транзиту, криз та війн із фокусом на молодих державах з гібридними політичними режимами. Напівпрезиденталізм розглядається як гетерогенна система правління, що поєднує всенародно обраного президента та уряд, який є колективно відповідальним хоча би перед парламентом, і може виявлятися як у президентсько-парламентському або прем’єр / парламентсько-президентському, так і в президенціалізованому, парламентаризованому чи збалансованому варіантах. Дослідження демонструє, що взаємодія ендогенних інституційних факторів та екзогенних шоків, таких як війни, конфлікти і кризи, суттєво впливає на політичну стабільність, рівень демократії і соціально-економічний розвиток. З одного боку, напівпрезиденталізм забезпечує гнучкість і потенційну стабільність у періоди розділеного правління, але, з іншого боку, конфлікти між президентом, прем’єр-міністром і парламентом, посилені кризовими обставинами, можуть спричиняти персоналізацію влади, уповільнювати демократичний транзит та підвищувати ризики автократизації. На основі порівняльного аналізу кейсів та використання даних про політичні режими (проєкти "Freedom in the World", "Polity") й збройні конфлікти ("Correlates of War", "Major Episodes of Political Violence") сформовано методологічну рамку, що дозволила оцінити ефективність типів напівпрезиденталізму в умовах криз та війн. Результати демонструють, що за умов чіткого розподілу повноважень система може ефективно функціонувати навіть у кризові періоди, тоді як у випадках концентрації влади президентом це також можливо, проте спостерігається погіршення демократичних показників. Висновки є релевантними для практичних рекомендацій стосовно конституційного дизайну, реформування міжінституційних відносин та посилення демократичної стабільності в країнах із незавершеним політичним транзитом та напівпрезидентською системою.
Посилання
Бібліографічні посилання
Boin, A., & ’T Hart, P. (2012). Aligning executive action in times of adversity: The politics of crisis co-ordination. In M. Lodge, & K. Wegrich (Eds.). Executive Politics in Times of Crisis (p. 179–196). Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan.
Center for Systemic Peace. (n.d.). Major Episodes of Political Violence 1946–2019. Retrieved from https://www.systemicpeace.org/warlist/warlist.htm
Correlates of War Project (n.d.). COW war data, 1816–2007 (v4.0). Retrieved from https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/cow-war/
Daly, S. (2003). The ladder of abstraction: A framework for the systematic classification of democratic regime types. Politics, 23(2), 96–108.
Duverger, M. (1980). A new political system model: Semipresidential government. European Journal of Political Research, 8(2), 165–187.
Eaton, K. (2002). Parliamentarism versus presidentialism in the policy arena. Comparative Politics, 32(3), 355–376.
Elgie, R. (1998). The classification of democratic regime types: Conceptual ambiguity and contestable assumptions. European Journal of Political Research, 33(2), 219–238.
Elgie, R. (1999). Semi-presidentialism in Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Elgie, R. (2004). Semi-presidentialism: Concepts, consequences and contesting explanations. Political Studies Review, 2(3), 314–330.
Elgie, R. (2005a ). A fresh look at semi-presidentialism: Variations on a theme. Journal of Democracy, 16(3), 98–112.
Elgie, R. (2005b ). From Linz to Tsebelis: Three waves of presidential / parliamentary studies? Democratization, 12(1), 106–122.
Elgie, R. (2007). Varieties of semi-presidentialism and their impact on nascent democracies. Taiwan Journal of Democracy, 3(2), 53–71.
Elgie, R. (2010). Semi-presidentialism, cohabitation and the collapse of electoral democracies, 1990–2008. Government and Opposition, 45(1), 29–49.
Elgie, R. (2011). Semi-presidentialism: Sub-types and democratic performance. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Elgie, R., & McMenamin, I. (2008). Semi-presidentialism and democratic performance. Japanese Journal of Political Science, 9(3), 323–340.
Freedom House. (n.d.). Freedom in the World. Retrieved from https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world
Krouwel, A. (2003). Measuring presidentialism and parliamentarism: An application to Central and East European countries. Acta Politica, 38(4), 333–364.
Lijphart, A. (1997). Nomination: Trichotomy or dichotomy. European Journal of Political Research, 31(1–2), 125–128.
Linz, J. J. (1990a). The perils of presidentialism. Journal of Democracy, 1(1), 50–69.
Linz, J. J. (1990b). The virtues of parliamentarism. Journal of Democracy, 1(4), 84–91.
Linz, J. J. (1994). Democracy, presidential or parliamentary: Does it make a difference? In J. J. Linz, & A. Valenzuela (Eds.). The failure of presidential democracy: The case of Latin America (p. 3–87). Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Lytvyn, V. (2020). Conditionality, factors and indicators of heterogeneity and typologization of semi-presidential system of government. Studium Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej, 13, 31–55.
Lytvyn, V. (2023). Conflict, stability and efficiency of various types of semi-presidentialism: Theoretical context, empirical implications and generalisation at the example of European countries. Studium Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej, 20, 117–132.
Lytvyn, V., & Romanyuk, A. (2021). Types and effects of European semi-presidentialism: Based on the features of dualism, party affiliation and responsibility of the executive and the composition of legislatures. The Annals of the University of Bucharest: Political Science Series, 23(1), 87–116.
Marshall, M. G., & Gurr, T. R. (2020). Polity5 Project, Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 18002018. Center for Systemic Peace. Retrieved from http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p5v2018d.xls
Moestrup, S. (2007). Semi-presidentialism in young democracies: Help or hindrance? In R. Elgie, & S. Moestrup (Eds.). Semi-presidentialism outside Europe: A Comparative study (p. 42–67). Routledge.
Perry, V. (2009). At cross purposes? Democratization and peace implementation strategies in Bosnia and Herzegovina`s frozen conflict. Human Rights Review, 10(1), 35–54.
Protsyk, O. (2005). Politics of intraexecutive conflict in semipresidential regimes in Eastern Europe. East European Politics and Societies, 19(2), 135–160.
Protsyk, O. (2006). Intra-executive competition between president and prime minister: Patterns of institutional conflict and cooperation under semi-presidentialism. Political Studies, 54(2), 219–244.
Sartori, G. (1994a). Comparative constitutional engineering: An inquiry into structures, incentives and outcomes. London: Macmillan.
Sartori, G. (1995). Elogio del semi-presidenzialismo. Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, 25(1), 3–20.
Sedelius, T. (2006). The tug-of-war between presidents and prime ministers: Semi-presidentialism in Central and Eastern Europe. Örebro.
Sedelius, T., & Ekman, J. (2010). Intra-executive conflict and cabinet instability: Effects of semi-presidentialism in Central and Eastern Europe. Government and Opposition, 45(4), 505–530.
Sedelius, T., & Mashtaler, O. (2013). Two decades of semi-presidentialism: Issues of intra-executive conflict in Central and Eastern Europe 1991–2011. East European Politics, 29(2), 109–134.
Sedelius, T., Mashtaler, O., & Raunio, T. (2024). Semi-presidentialism and war: Executive leadership models in Ukraine during Zelenskyi`s presidency. East European Politics, 40(4), 658–683.
Shugart, M. S., & Carey, J. M. (1992). Presidents and assemblies: Constitutional design and electoral dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Skach, C. (2007). The "newest" separation of powers: Semipresidentialism. International Journal of Constitutional Law, 5(1), 93–121.
Stepan, A., & Suleiman, E. N. (2001). The French fifth republic: A model for import? In A. Stepan (Ed.). Arguing Comparative Politic (p. 276–294). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
The Fraser Institute. (n.d.). Economic Freedom of the World: Dataset. Retrieved from https://www.efotw.org/economic-freedom/dataset
United Nations Development Programme. (n.d.). Human Development Index (HDI). Retrieved from https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/human-development-index#/indicies/HDI
World Bank Group. (n.d.). Worldwide governance indicators. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators
Yan, H. T. (2023). Taiwan can help: The political impacts and lessons of Taiwan`s responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. In W.-C. Lee (Ed.). Protests, pandemic, and security predicaments: Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, and the US in the 2020s (p. 147–185). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
References
Boin, A., & ’T Hart, P. (2012). Aligning executive action in times of adversity: The politics of crisis co-ordination. In M. Lodge, & K. Wegrich (Eds.). Executive Politics in Times of Crisis (p. 179–196). Houndmills: Palgrave Macmillan.
Center for Systemic Peace. (n.d.). Major Episodes of Political Violence 1946–2019. Retrieved from https://www.systemicpeace.org/warlist/warlist.htm
Correlates of War Project (n.d.). COW war data, 1816–2007 (v4.0). Retrieved from https://correlatesofwar.org/data-sets/cow-war/
Daly, S. (2003). The ladder of abstraction: A framework for the systematic classification of democratic regime types. Politics, 23(2), 96–108.
Duverger, M. (1980). A new political system model: Semipresidential government. European Journal of Political Research, 8(2), 165–187.
Eaton, K. (2002). Parliamentarism versus presidentialism in the policy arena. Comparative Politics, 32(3), 355–376.
Elgie, R. (1998). The classification of democratic regime types: Conceptual ambiguity and contestable assumptions. European Journal of Political Research, 33(2), 219–238.
Elgie, R. (1999). Semi-presidentialism in Europe. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Elgie, R. (2004). Semi-presidentialism: Concepts, consequences and contesting explanations. Political Studies Review, 2(3), 314–330.
Elgie, R. (2005a ). A fresh look at semi-presidentialism: Variations on a theme. Journal of Democracy, 16(3), 98–112.
Elgie, R. (2005b ). From Linz to Tsebelis: Three waves of presidential / parliamentary studies? Democratization, 12(1), 106–122.
Elgie, R. (2007). Varieties of semi-presidentialism and their impact on nascent democracies. Taiwan Journal of Democracy, 3(2), 53–71.
Elgie, R. (2010). Semi-presidentialism, cohabitation and the collapse of electoral democracies, 1990–2008. Government and Opposition, 45(1), 29–49.
Elgie, R. (2011). Semi-presidentialism: Sub-types and democratic performance. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Elgie, R., & McMenamin, I. (2008). Semi-presidentialism and democratic performance. Japanese Journal of Political Science, 9(3), 323–340.
Freedom House. (n.d.). Freedom in the World. Retrieved from https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world
Krouwel, A. (2003). Measuring presidentialism and parliamentarism: An application to Central and East European countries. Acta Politica, 38(4), 333–364.
Lijphart, A. (1997). Nomination: Trichotomy or dichotomy. European Journal of Political Research, 31(1–2), 125–128.
Linz, J. J. (1990a). The perils of presidentialism. Journal of Democracy, 1(1), 50–69.
Linz, J. J. (1990b). The virtues of parliamentarism. Journal of Democracy, 1(4), 84–91.
Linz, J. J. (1994). Democracy, presidential or parliamentary: Does it make a difference? In J. J. Linz, & A. Valenzuela (Eds.). The failure of presidential democracy: The case of Latin America (p. 3–87). Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Lytvyn, V. (2020). Conditionality, factors and indicators of heterogeneity and typologization of semi-presidential system of government. Studium Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej, 13, 31–55.
Lytvyn, V. (2023). Conflict, stability and efficiency of various types of semi-presidentialism: Theoretical context, empirical implications and generalisation at the example of European countries. Studium Europy Środkowej i Wschodniej, 20, 117–132.
Lytvyn, V., & Romanyuk, A. (2021). Types and effects of European semi-presidentialism: Based on the features of dualism, party affiliation and responsibility of the executive and the composition of legislatures. The Annals of the University of Bucharest: Political Science Series, 23(1), 87–116.
Marshall, M. G., & Gurr, T. R. (2020). Polity5 Project, Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 18002018. Center for Systemic Peace. Retrieved from http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscr/p5v2018d.xls
Moestrup, S. (2007). Semi-presidentialism in young democracies: Help or hindrance? In R. Elgie, & S. Moestrup (Eds.). Semi-presidentialism outside Europe: A Comparative study (p. 42–67). Routledge.
Perry, V. (2009). At cross purposes? Democratization and peace implementation strategies in Bosnia and Herzegovina`s frozen conflict. Human Rights Review, 10(1), 35–54.
Protsyk, O. (2005). Politics of intraexecutive conflict in semipresidential regimes in Eastern Europe. East European Politics and Societies, 19(2), 135–160.
Protsyk, O. (2006). Intra-executive competition between president and prime minister: Patterns of institutional conflict and cooperation under semi-presidentialism. Political Studies, 54(2), 219–244.
Sartori, G. (1994a). Comparative constitutional engineering: An inquiry into structures, incentives and outcomes. London: Macmillan.
Sartori, G. (1995). Elogio del semi-presidenzialismo. Rivista Italiana di Scienza Politica, 25(1), 3–20.
Sedelius, T. (2006). The tug-of-war between presidents and prime ministers: Semi-presidentialism in Central and Eastern Europe. Örebro.
Sedelius, T., & Ekman, J. (2010). Intra-executive conflict and cabinet instability: Effects of semi-presidentialism in Central and Eastern Europe. Government and Opposition, 45(4), 505–530.
Sedelius, T., & Mashtaler, O. (2013). Two decades of semi-presidentialism: Issues of intra-executive conflict in Central and Eastern Europe 1991–2011. East European Politics, 29(2), 109–134.
Sedelius, T., Mashtaler, O., & Raunio, T. (2024). Semi-presidentialism and war: Executive leadership models in Ukraine during Zelenskyi`s presidency. East European Politics, 40(4), 658–683.
Shugart, M. S., & Carey, J. M. (1992). Presidents and assemblies: Constitutional design and electoral dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Skach, C. (2007). The "newest" separation of powers: Semipresidentialism. International Journal of Constitutional Law, 5(1), 93–121.
Stepan, A., & Suleiman, E. N. (2001). The French fifth republic: A model for import? In A. Stepan (Ed.). Arguing Comparative Politic (p. 276–294). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
The Fraser Institute. (n.d.). Economic Freedom of the World: Dataset. Retrieved from https://www.efotw.org/economic-freedom/dataset
United Nations Development Programme. (n.d.). Human Development Index (HDI). Retrieved from https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/human-development-index#/indicies/HDI
World Bank Group. (n.d.). Worldwide governance indicators. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators
Yan, H. T. (2023). Taiwan can help: The political impacts and lessons of Taiwan`s responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. In W.-C. Lee (Ed.). Protests, pandemic, and security predicaments: Hong Kong, Taiwan, China, and the US in the 2020s (p. 147–185). Cham: Springer International Publishing.
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